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Abstract
Studies of poverty dynamics relying solely on household
income-expenditure surveys can overestimate transient
poverty, especially for the poorest. In this study,
we make use of an approach that relies on community
based change ranking to explore various directions and
levels of change experienced by almost 6,000 households
living in over 100 communities. We find that changes
are initial condition dependent and that improvement,
even small ones are far less likely to happen over time
for the poorest. Understanding the extent of and the
forces that drive such smaller movements is important
since it is the accumulative dynamics that ultimately
lead to the larger movements of ascent, descent and
trap, especially for the ultra poor.
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